🇮🇷 Iran Has ‘Serious Doubts’ Over Ceasefire with Israel, Warns of Retaliation if Truce Breaks
In a strong warning that underscores the fragility of the recently announced ceasefire between Iran and Israel, Iran’s military leadership expressed “serious doubts” about Israel's commitment to the truce and indicated that retaliatory action would follow if hostilities resumed.
The announcement came just days after former U.S. President Donald Trump brokered a temporary ceasefire between the two long-time adversaries, declaring an end to what has been dubbed the “12-Day War”—a conflict that had escalated into regional panic and economic shockwaves across global markets.
⚠️ Fragile Truce Under Threat
The Iranian Armed Forces Chief of Staff, General Abdolrahim Mousavi, cast serious doubts on the agreement during a phone call with Saudi Arabia’s Defense Minister, Khalid bin Salman, on Sunday. According to Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency, Mousavi warned:
“We have serious doubts about the enemy’s commitment to its obligations, including the ceasefire. We are prepared to deliver a firm response if aggression is repeated.”
This statement points to Iran’s skepticism about Israel's willingness to honor the ceasefire, and signals that the Islamic Republic remains on high alert despite international pressure to de-escalate.
🕊️ The Ceasefire Announcement: A Trump-Led Diplomatic Push
The ceasefire agreement was announced by Donald Trump himself on Truth Social on June 24, claiming the truce was set to begin in phases.
His post read:
“CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE... This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!”
The ceasefire agreement allowed for a 12-hour window where each side would sequentially stop its operations, with Iran initiating the first pause and Israel following suit 12 hours later. By the 24th hour, the war was to be considered officially over.
🧨 What Sparked the 12-Day War?
The latest Iran-Israel conflict erupted on June 13, when Israel conducted a precision strike targeting senior Iranian military and nuclear personnel, including Mousavi’s predecessor. The targeted killings shocked Tehran and ignited fierce retaliatory rhetoric from Iranian leadership.
What followed was a massive military campaign involving:
-
Israeli airstrikes on suspected nuclear sites.
-
Civilian infrastructure damage in Tehran and other cities.
-
A U.S. offensive supporting Israel that struck three major nuclear facilities in Iran.
Trump later declared that the U.S. bombing campaign had:
“Completely and totally obliterated the Iranian atomic infrastructure.”
🌐 Geopolitical Fallout and Global Concerns
The rapid escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iran in mid-June raised alarm among global powers, including China, Russia, and the European Union. Oil prices spiked, airlines rerouted flights, and financial markets across Asia and the Middle East saw volatility.
Though the ceasefire brought temporary relief, strategic experts warn the truce is paper-thin, especially without a permanent diplomatic framework in place.
🛡️ Regional Players Weigh In
Iran's communication with Saudi Arabia is a noteworthy development, especially given the complex and often tense relationship between the two nations. The involvement of Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman signals that Iran is seeking broader regional consensus—or at the very least, preparing alliances in anticipation of a breakdown in the ceasefire.
This aligns with recent movements where Gulf nations have quietly urged both sides to de-escalate and prevent the conflict from spilling across borders.
📉 Market Reactions and Global Response
While the ceasefire announcement brought momentary calm to global stock markets, oil futures remain jittery due to the uncertainty of Iran’s intentions and Israel’s potential countermeasures. The World Bank, International Energy Agency (IEA), and OPEC have all issued statements urging restraint and warning that another flare-up could severely disrupt global energy supplies.
Meanwhile, the UN Secretary-General called for immediate steps to build trust between the two sides and move toward a longer-lasting peace agreement, while NATO warned of “unintended consequences” if either party violated the ceasefire.
💬 What’s Next?
Analysts believe that both sides are currently in a fragile holding pattern, assessing each other's next move. Any minor incident could trigger a chain reaction—especially with hardliners in both Tehran and Tel Aviv already criticizing the ceasefire.
If Iran’s warning is to be taken seriously, then any perceived violation—accidental or deliberate—could bring back a cycle of rapid escalation, possibly with more regional actors drawn in.
🧾 Conclusion: Ceasefire or Calm Before the Storm?
The June ceasefire may have momentarily halted the missiles, but the mistrust runs deep. Iran's warning, conveyed through its top military leadership, signals that the peace is conditional and fleeting. Unless verified steps toward diplomacy occur soon, the current calm may be just the eye of the storm in a volatile Middle East.
For now, the world watches.
